Bayes' Theorem applied to the FBI findings on Brett Kavanaugh
______________________________________ Question: What is the probability that Brett Kavanaugh is guilty of the allegation of sexual assault by Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, given the findings of the FBI’s report? How should someone’s estimate of this probability have changed once the report was released? Conclusion: Unless you are more than about 80% sure that the FBI’s investigation would have found corroborating evidence if Kavanaugh were guilty, your new estimate of the probability of Kavanaugh’s guilt should not have changed much after the investigation (fact). Considering the identities of the interviewees, it seems crazy to put that first part anywhere close to 80% (opinion). How Bayes' Theorem helps: The question headlining this report is tough to address directly, because it is asking about the probability of a prior event (the allegation) given a more recent event (the report). It's more practical to switch this around, to consider the probability that the la